Two years on from the signing of the Paris Agreement, what progress has there been in the global climate change movement and what roadblocks remain? There have been moments of magic as well as moments of madness in the world of politics, and it is this unpredictable international political landscape that will remain one of the biggest risks to climate change action over the course of the year ahead.
But there could be a remedy. Effective climate change communications could hold the key to mobilising cross-societal agreement in what has become an increasingly polarised global environment.
Politics in crisis?
The forces of populism, nativism, tribalism and nationalism have come together to confront the establishment with one of the trickiest challenges facing traditional politics today. There has been the election of Donald Trump to the White House, the UK’s vote to the leave the European Union, the triumph of Sebastian Kurz in the Austrian elections and his subsequent coalition government with the far-right Freedom Party, the election of billionaire Andrej Babiš as prime minister of the Czech Republic following a populist election campaign, and the months of political deadlock in Germany following the gains made by the far-right Alternative for Germany Party in last September’s elections.
There were hopes that the populist wave might have peaked following the ‘Macron moment’ last year, when the French president defeated far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the French elections, following on from Mark Rutte’s triumph over his far-right counterpart Geert Wilders in the Dutch elections just over a month before. But with more elections scheduled across Europe this year – most notably in Italy and Hungary where support for populist parties is growing – the anti-establishment sentiment might continue to upset the mainstream order.
Impact on the climate change debate
But how has this political context affected the climate change debate? In some cases significantly. Shortly after Donald Trump was elected for example, following on from a populist election campaign that promised support for the coal sector, the US president announced his intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, signed by more than 190 countries in 2015. Now that Nicaragua and Syria have signed the treaty, the US – the world’s second largest greenhouse gas emitter – is the only country who intends to be outside of the accord, raising questions about the world being able to keep an increase in global temperature levels to less than 1.5oC. Furthermore, the Trump administration has now dropped climate change from its list of global threats outlined in its latest National Security Strategy and the US president continues to express climate change scepticism on his social media channels.
In the UK, after taking on the premiership in 2016 following the Brexit result, Theresa May has had a piecemeal stance towards tackling climate change, having scrapped the former Department for Energy and Climate Change, appointed Michael Gove as environment secretary – who once wanted to remove the mention of climate change from the curriculum – and recently announcing that renewable energy subsidies will be cut until 2025. The snap UK general election in 2017 also saw May forced to form a coalition government with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, who itself has had a debatable position on environmental issues, having previously appointed a climate change sceptic as its environment minister. Fortunately, May has attempted to bolster her government’s green credentials recently, announcing that the UK will pledge £140 million for communities affected by climate change, outlining a Clean Growth Strategy of how the UK hopes to meet its legally-binding climate change goals and kick-starting 2018 by unveiling a 25-year environment plan, although there has been criticism that her plans have not been ambitious enough.
Likewise, the German election result left Angela Merkel taking a more reserved tone on climate change issues as she attempted to forge a coalition government at home. This was under the spotlight at the latest UN climate negotiations, where the German chancellor announced that the nation could miss meeting its greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, while avoiding taking a strong stance against coal. However, now that Merkel is on the brink of forming a coalition government with the centre-left Social Democratic Party, we could see Germany get back on track towards becoming carbon-neutral by 2050.
Hope on the horizon
The response to this political instability is, however, perhaps a reason to be hopeful. One of the interesting things with Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is the galvanizing effect it has had among the rest of the world, bringing countries closer together in their commitment to seeing the accord become operational.
Following Trump’s announcement, the EU and China for example, emboldened many by releasing a joint statement upholding their commitment to the agreement. Similarly, US states, cities and businesses came together to counteract Trump’s policy shift at the recent UN climate negotiations by mobilising a prominent ‘We Are Still In’ campaign. French President Emmanuel Macron also announced that he would help to close the gap in funding left by the US for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Furthermore, an international alliance to phase out coal by 2030, the Power Past Coal Alliance, was also unveiled at the UN climate negotiations, which will help to accelerate efforts to phase out coal from the global energy mix. Surprisingly, the embattled Syrian regime also announced that it would be signing up to the Paris Agreement and the World Bank added a cherry on top of the cake when, at the One Planet Summit, it revealed that it will stop financing oil and gas exploration and extraction projects from 2019.
Work to do
Given the volatile political climate, however, it is crucial to keep a laser-beam focus on translating these ambitious pledges into effective action. But how do we do this in a ‘post-truth’ landscape that is being shaped by divisive forces such as populism?
There might be a silver lining. Having conversations with groups across society as the populist tide rages on could be a powerful tool in stemming the current of disenchantment that has stimulated this division. Climate Outreach is working to do just that by expanding the dialogue around climate change from an issue that is for experts to one that is for everyone. They have found that values underpin decision-making, rather than politics, economics or science, so finding the shared values that unite us rather than divide us could be a golden opportunity to shore up climate change efforts. From talking about climate change to people of all ages, faiths, nationalities and sides of the political spectrum, to changing our image of climate change from one of melting ice caps to one of how families are adapting to rising sea levels in coastal regions, it is important that we build a societal consensus that appeals to our shared values so that we can effectively tackle a global problem which knows no national boundaries – while we still can.
We have achieved so many amazing things so far. The development of a solar energy powered aeroplane which completed its first trip around the world in 2016. The growth of the renewable energy sector to one that now employs almost 10 million people globally. The expansion of the electric car industry with now almost 2 million electric cars on the road worldwide. Solar energy powered lamps being used in refugee camps from Jordan to Burkina Faso. And even solar energy powered roads in France, China and the Netherlands. But this year marks a deadline for agreeing a ‘rulebook’ for the Paris Agreement – the rules for how the agreement will operate after 2020 – as well as a stocktake on the progress countries have made so far towards their greenhouse gas emission reduction goals. In the run-up to these milestones, we need the momentum to continue. With an unpredictable international political landscape, that will likely see the US government no longer in the driving seat in the UN climate negotiations as it was ahead of Paris, it will be up to the rest of the world – individually and collectively and from the bottom to the top – to come together to overcome the divisions that have been sown.
Gitika Bhardwaj works at The Royal Institute of International Affairs at Chatham House and is a trustee of Climate Outreach.
Image credit: churl han